Wednesday, 30 November 2016

Warmest November & 2nd Warmest Fall on Record Shatter Multiple Records in Winnipeg


With an average mean temperature of 3.1°C, November 2016 goes down as the warmest on record since 1872. This shattered the old record of 1.3°C in 1899 and 1923 by 1.8°C! The last time we broke a monthly record by this margin was in January 2006 when an average mean temperature of -7.4°C broke the old record of -10.6°C in 1944 (record margin of 3.2°C!).

Below is a full list of records broken during our warmest November on record this year in Winnipeg.

Warmest November on Record in Winnipeg, Manitoba (2016)

Average mean temperature 3.1°C (previous record: 1.3°C in 1899 and 1923) (breaks old record by 1.8°C!)

Average high temperature 7.2°C (previous record: 7.1°C in 2009)

Average low temperature -1.0°C (previous record: -3.2°C in 1923) (breaks old record by 2.2°C!)

2nd Warmest Fall on Record (2016)
Average mean temperature 8.0°C  (warmest was 1963 with average of 8.6°C and 2016 beats 7.9°C in 1931)
Average high temperature  12.8°C  (tied with 1931 and 2009 for 4th warmest)
Average low temperature  3.3°C   (warmest on record, beating 2.9°C in 1931)

Most ''Humid'' November and Fall on Record (2016)
November average dewpoint  0.3°C   (breaks old record by 3.2°C (-2.9°C in 2015))
Fall average dewpoint  4.4°C (breaks old record of 3.6°C in 2009)


Daily Temperature Records (6)

Nov 6:         16.7°C high max – Tied with 1975

Nov 6:          7.4°C high min –   Old 5.6°C in 1906 and 1922 – Also 4th highest on record in November

Nov 9:         18.8°C high max – Old 14.4°C in 1923 – Also latest date to reach 18°C on record

Nov 9:          4.8°C high min –   Old 2.8°C in 1969

Nov 12:       13.6°C high max – Old 13.2°C in 1981

Nov 24:        0.1°C high min –   Old 0.0°C in 1988


Daily Dewpoint Records (11)

Nov 4:          9.7°C high max –  Old 9.5°C in 1981

Nov 5:          2.2°C high min –   Old 1.7°C in 1956

Nov 6:         12.3°C high max – Old 9.4°C in 2000 – Also highest dewpoint on record in November

                                                                                   Old 11.1°C on Nov 5, 1956

Nov 6:         4.9°C high min –    Old 1.4°C in 1977 – Also 3rd highest on record in November

Nov 7:         10.8°C high max – Old 10.4°C in 1977 – Also 3rd highest on record in November

Nov 9:         7.7°C high max –   Old 6.1°C in 2010

Nov 23:      -0.4°C high min –   Old -1.5°C in 2001

Nov 24:      -0.2°C high min –   Old -0.7°C in 1988

Nov 28:      -1.0°C high min –   Old -1.1°C in 1998

Nov 29:       3.4°C high max –  Old 2.1°C in 1998

Nov 29:      -1.5°C high min –   Old -2.3°C in 1987


Other records

Nov 22:    Latest date to record first measurable snowfall of the season – Old Nov 21, 1963

Apr 11 to Nov 21 – 225-day period without measurable snowfall – 3rd longest snow-free period on record
10 days above 10°C - tied with 1981 and 2009 for 2nd most (most was 11 days in 1904)
Streak of 7 days above 10°C - tied with 2009 for 2nd longest (longest was 8 days from Nov 2 to 9, 1963)
  • Only 5 days dipped below -5°C, breaking the old record of 7 days in 1899.
  • Only one day dipped below -10°C, tied with 1912, 1923, 1981 and 2001 for the least on record.
  • Only 18 days dipped below freezing, breaking the old record of 20 days set in 2015. Normal is 28 days.
  • 28 days exceeded the freezing mark, tied with 2009 for 2nd most. Most was 29 days in 1899.
  • 4 days exceeded 15°C, tied with 1903 and 1981 for most on record.
 

26 comments:

  1. Hi. I'm not sure if you read this page anymore but I thought i would mention it. The weather records website has been down since sometime in mid March. Is it going to come back at some point? That was the only place where you could see a comprehensive book of records. Even the record on environment Canada are outdated and I don't know where else to find them

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    1. Hi Matthew,

      I'm afraid the website is no longer available for the time being due to my dealings with Weatherlogics (http://www.weatherlogics.com/). I apologize for the inconvenience. Perhaps the website, or a different version of it, will return in the future.

      Julien

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    2. Hi Matthew,

      You can access the record books for Winnipeg at:

      privaterecords.weebly.com

      Unfortunately, someone took the old URL I had so I'll have to stick with this URL for now.

      Julien

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  2. Thank you! I'm so glad they are back. Just curious, will the records for the other cities ever be back too?

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    1. You're welcome. Probably not, partly because I no longer have the free time to keep up with them.

      Julien

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  3. Hi. I see there are new categories for days lower than -20 and -30 and days higher than 30. When I click on them the links are broken though. Are these things to be added in the future?

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    1. Yes. They will be added gradually. So far I've added the monthly -20c days.

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  4. Thanks! I love the new graphs. Very interesting to see how our -20C days are much lower now than they used to be and November and marches -20C day have more than halved since the late 1800's.

    Why were the late 1800's so cold? Generally they were a brutal time in North America but I've always been fascinated as to why they were so cold.

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    1. The drastic warming that Winnipeg and experienced in the late 1800's and early 1900's I have often wondered about as well. I'm not sure why Winnipeg warmed so quickly in a couple decades. We have essentially levelled off since then with only relatively marginal warming in the last few decades. There were significant volcanoes, such as Krakatoa, that had an impact on weather in the late 1800's. Maybe industrialization or land-surface alteration induced warming? Just personal speculation.

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  5. That's interesting. Do you think it's human caused climate change that caused the warming to happen? Our winters are still warming though, the next set of winter normals will be even higher than the current one due to how many warm winters we've had this decade.

    I wonder what the climate was like before 1872? Even colder? Who knows. Winter 2013-14 was basically a late 1800's style winter, as well as the spring. We essentially got a taste of what it was like every year. Looking at your record books Winter is now the warmest it's ever been, yet months such as May, June, and October are only slightly higher than the late 1800's.

    I wonder how long the climate was cold for before record keeping began. Are we really the warmest we've ever been in history? We've never been warmer since 1872 than we are now.

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    1. We are averaging the warmest we have since records began in the 1870's. However, the rate of warming is lower than from the 1890's to 1910's (we warmed a full 1°C in just one decade.. versus 0.5°C or less per decade in recent decades).

      Toronto has records going back to the early 1840's. I had done a comparison between Toronto and Winnipeg. The 1840's to 1880's were fairly stable in terms of temperature trends in Toronto. Then Toronto started to experience warming around the same time as Winnipeg in the 1890's to 1910's. Again I can't pinpoint the exact causes and I haven't done enough research on the topic. However, it seems the drastic warming was fairly widespread and not localized to southern Manitoba.

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    2. I'm also fascinated at the 1877-1878 period when the Northern Plains, including Winnipeg, experienced an unbelievable warm period for the time... Even unusually warm by today's standards (1878 is still the 3rd warmest year on record and that winter is still our warmest on record). There is a lot of literature online about this event, which was likely a very stong El Nino, with impacts around the world.

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  6. Yes I've always been fascinated by the 1877-1878 winter as well. It carries our warmest December on record, our warmest February until 1998 beat it, and our warmest March until 2012 beat it. Don't forget matches average around -12 at the time as opposed to today's mean of about -5.5 or so. March 1878 averaged 1.6C and was the warmest until 2012 beat it. That's a ridiculous 13C above normal.

    Not even 2016 beat 1878 for warmth. And to think that winter averaged an absolutely incredible -7.2C. In the era when winters averaged -19C, and only 3 years after the coldest winter ever of -23C in 1874-75

    2011-12 was crazy warm, the warmest in recent memory, but to think 1877-78 was 2.5C warmer. It would have been incredible to experience. Although I would have loved to experience the incredibly brutal winters of the late 1800's too. Back when -40 ( without windchill ) was a common occurrence.

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  7. I'm also fascinated by December 1879, when Winnipeg recorded a high of -39.4 on the 24th and a low of -47.8

    How is that even possible? Not even arctic regions hit those temperatures every year.

    And the 1877-78 warm period being right in the middle of the brutal late 1800's makes it even more shocking and incredible

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  8. Also. The warmth peaked in the 1930's and 40's and then cooled off until the mid 70's. Then it started to rise again and now it's at the warmest it's ever been. Will we see a cool down again in the future? Who knows?

    I've also wondered about the July 1936 setup, what allowed us to get that incredible hot July the summer after one of the coldest winters on record.

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  9. Hi! Can I ask about October 2002. In environment Canada's records it shows the monthly mean was -0.9C in fact our coldest October in record. In your record books it lists October 2002 as a -0.5C value. I'm just curious as to the discrepancy in the values here and which one is correct as that is quite a significant difference.

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    1. Hi Matthew. That -0.9°C mean was at the 'A CS' station which is not considered the official station for Winnipeg at the time. 'Winnipeg Richardson Int'l A' was the official and where the -0.5°C mean came from. Under the ''The Data'' tab on my website, you can choose 'Data Sources' to see which stations were used when. I also quality check all data I use and therefore, occasionally difference may arise because of that. Under ''Quality Correction'', you can view what data was corrected and why.

      Julien

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    2. Were you around and remember the summers of 2004 and 2009? Awful summers! The way things have been going this second half of June is quite reminiscent of those summers! I hope things turn around in July.

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  10. I lived in Calgary in 2004 so don't remember that but I think I remember the awful summer of 2009. It was a cold one.

    June is still slightly above normal due to the early month heat wave but with the cool temperatures I think it will bring it down to average or so.

    Did we break the record low maximum today? The record is 13.9C in 2004 and the highest hourly reading I saw was 12.2C unless it got higher in between hours. And as long as it doesn't get higher before midnight.

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    1. The high was 12.6°C so we did break a low maximum record today. The coldest June day since June 8, 2009 when we only reached 11.4°C.

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    2. Thanks! I'm so happy we beat the record! And by a good margin too! Will the new record go in your record books at some point?

      How do you see the official highs? I can only see the hourly value of 12.2C in environment Canada's website.

      Does someone at environment Canada keep track of this stuff? As in will it be updated in their climate logs that we broke a low maximum record?

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    3. They don't officially keep track of record low maximum records - only record high maximums and low minimums.

      Synoptic reports (Synops for short) can be used. One option to view (easier for the general public) is here: http://www.ogimet.com/gsynres.phtml.en
      Winnipeg's WMO index is 71849 (the 'A CS' station). These are updated every 6 hours starting from midnight during CDT (winter) and 1 am during CST (summer).

      I'll add the record to my table this morning.

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    4. Actually, beware that that source for synops appears to be using a 6 am to 6 am timeframe for the daily highs and lows.

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  11. Thanks for adding the record!

    I think we've broken 4 high minimums and 1 high maximum as well as 1 record low maximum so far this year. That's quite impressive.

    Do you think we will see a transition to warmer weather soon or will this cool fall like pattern continue?

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    1. Signs point toward overall warming, yes, but it's too early to say if the warmth will be ''permanent'' or interrupted by frequent cool downs.

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    2. Thank you! Overall do you think summer will finish above or below normal? Or is it too early to call that yet?

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