Friday 20 October 2017

Warmth Records Shattered October 20

It was an unseasonably warm day across southern Manitoba today (October 20). Widespread records were broken with highs in the mid twenties.

Winnipeg Airport reached 25.0°C, breaking the old record of 23.9°C in 1875 and 1958. This marked the 7th latest date to reach 25°C on record since 1872. The latest was on October 27, 1938 with a high of 25.6°C. It is rare to reach 25°C this late in the season. In fact, today marked the latest date to reach 25°C in Winnipeg since 1963, Winnipeg's warmest October.

Widespread highs between 25°C and 27°C occurred in southeastern Manitoba. The hotspot was Sprague with a high of 27.2°C. Beausejour (Manitoba Agriculture station) also reached 27.0°C. A list of records (non-exhaustive) follows:


Records October 20, 2017:
City or town....New Record....Old Record....Record Period(s)

Sprague..........27.2°C....23.9°C (1953)....................1915-present (ECCC)
Beausejour......27.0°C....20.6°C (1978)....................1960-2004 (ECCC), presently Mb Ag
Steinbach........26.3°C....23.3°C (1958)....................1956-2004 (ECCC), 2006-present (Mb Ag)
Winnipeg........25.0°C....23.9°C (1875 and 1958)....1872-present (ECCC)
Gretna.............24.6°C....23.9°C (1958)....................1955-present (ECCC)
Pinawa............24.0°C....20.6°C (1978)....................1915-1950, 1964-present (ECCC)
Wasagaming... 22.8°C....21.1°C (1973 and 1978)....1966-present (ECCC)
Gimli..............21.5°C....20.6°C (1953).....................1944-present (ECCC)

Cities that just missed out on records include Morden with a high of 25.1°C (record 27.2°C in 1927), Portage la Prairie with a high of 23.5°C (record 25.6°C in 1927), and Brandon with a high of 22.4°C (record 23.3°C in 1901).

Hopefully you are enjoying the warmth while it lasts. I can guarantee that it won't be this warm again until at least April! Much cooler conditions are expected next week.

205 comments:

  1. Incredible warmth!! What a day. Felt like summer out there. Now bring on the cold weather!!

    Just how cold could we get next week JJ?

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    1. Probably will start seeing days with highs only in the single digits more consistently for sure.

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    2. Average highs are now 8C right? So that would be normal by then anyway. Do you think we will be done with double digits after next Wednesday or do we usually get double digits in November?

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    3. Around there. ECCC has a normal high of 8C and average high of 10C (why the difference? I'm actually not sure). I cannot guarantee we are done with double digits as we can still reach them well into November which is too far to forecast.

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    4. We actually reached a double digit high on December 6th 1939. 11.7C. How is it possible to reach double digits in December? What kind of setup would be needed?

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    5. No snow on the ground, full sunshine and a southwesterly wind would be ideal to get that warm in December in Winnipeg. Double digits are more frequent along the escarpment thanks to downsloping.

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    6. That makes sense. Now one thing I have noticed is that on warm late fall or early spring days, the Morden/Melita area is always much warmer than us here in Winnipeg. Why is this?

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  2. Low of 17.6°C this morning up to 8 am at the Airport. This would obliterate the old daily high minimum record of 15.6°C in 1953 if it wasn't for the cool down later today. We will likely be dropping into the low teens or even high single digits by midnight which will destroy our chances of a record. However, I'm sure this is the warmest overnight low for this date, it just won't be the warmest daily minimum.

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    1. I checked and I can confirm that this is the warmest overnight low for Oct 21 since 1953 (can't go before that because there's no hourly data prior to 1953). Previously was that 15.6C overnight low in 1953 (didn't fall below that in the evening that year, which we will today).

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    2. Yep. But that won’t count as a record because we fall below tonight right? Still that is an incredibly warm night time low for this time of year

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  3. JJ. The weather network is now predicting highs of 1-4C after next Wednesday. It looks really cold now with nothing above 4C. Is confidence growing we are shifting to cold now?

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    1. Definitely cooling down, especially by the second half of next week. Models have been showing some snow as well. As for specifics, I prefer to wait until we get closer.

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    2. The weather network forecasting a rainstorm for Thursday, EC saying rain and snow. Is our mild fall coming to an end? October is likely to finish with a mean around 7.5-8C or so. Which would be in the 30 warmest.

      Looking into the long range, it looks like we’ll have a stretch of highs at or slightly above freezing heading into the start of November. If winter is coming soon, I’ll be happy.

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  4. CPC outlooks calling for below normal temperatures to finish October and below normal temperatures into early November. I’m happy!

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  5. JJ, how is the snow forecast for Thursday going?

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  6. How accurate is that 40% chance of showers for Thursday forecasted by EC? Sounds a little off. Weather underground predicting near blizzard like conditions with a high of 2C and 8 centimetres of snow. What do you see coming our way?

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    1. A mix of sun and cloud now! Everyone else is predicting a storm. What’s up with EC?

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    2. Anything beyond the ''tomorrow'' forecast is purely automated from a single model with no human intervention so take those forecasts with a grain of salt. Looks like an Alberta clipper type of system will be moving through on Thursday with rain and snow possible. Models are keeping the bulk of the precipitation and snow north and east of Winnipeg but do bring in some precipitation, especially on the backside, to Winnipeg. This would likely be some snow with possibly rain mixed in in the early stages. Winds will be strong but don't expect blizzard conditions with temperatures near or above freezing. The snow will be too wet for a true blizzard, but blowing snow can still occur. In fact, there's never been an official blizzard in Winipeg in October since 1953. We've have two near-blizzards in October: in 1985 and in 2003.

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    3. Thanks. Could we see up to 5cm of snow? Could this be the snow that sticks for winter? It seems we stay close to the freezing mark beyond that. Does it look like we are in for a cold November now? The weather network has below freezing highs next week

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    4. The snow will melt for sure before winter. Snow that falls in October almost always melts before winter because the sun angle is still high enough and the ground is still warm. I wouldn't expect huge accumulations under current guidance. If things swing a bit further south, we could get 10 or more cm, but otherwise probably less than 5 cm.

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    5. Thanks! I hope we will get a lot still!

      Now, snow has stayed in October before. October 30th 1971 for winnipeg there was a snowstorm, that snow stayed for the winter. And even more insane, October 7th 1959 in Brandon, that snow stayed for the entire winter. How is it possible to get snow that sticks that early?

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    6. There would have to be a very significant amount of snow that would not have been able to melt before the winter. That October was Brandon's snowiest on record with numerous snowstorms that month. It isn't impossible for it to happen in Winnipeg but it is rare. Often the snow will melt down to at least a trace before the true winter snow pack comes along. Also, snow that fell before the last week of October always melted completely before winter since snow depth records began in 1955.

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    7. That is true.

      I wonder, since snow depth only goes back to 1955, is it possible that during those brutally cold falls of the 1800s that snow came even earlier and stayed? Like 2nd or 3rd week of October during years like 1875 and 1896? And stayed later in the spring like into May during years like 1883?

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  7. The weather network seems to be predicting all rain again, but EC has that classic “ rain or snow “ with no other information. How is the forecast looking now?

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    1. It still looks like a rain changing to snow type of event to me. More specifically, rain Wednesday night changing to snow Thursday morning or closer to midday. 5 to 8 cm of snow not out of the question but will depend partly on how much melts on contact considering the fact that most of the snow would fall during the day. And of course, will depend on how early we switch over to snow.

      Yeah, automated forecasts really don't provide much detail, especially if they are purely automated from a single model.

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    2. Thanks JJ. Now, a weather page on Facebook posted a model that shows we could get 30CM of snow!! Is this possible with this system?

      Could the switchover be by 7AM or so?

      This could get real nasty, interesting after such a warm October. It does look like we are headed for an extended period of colder conditions doesn’t it? CPC outlooks indicating below normal through to the second week of November

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    3. That 30 cm is from the NAM model (US model) which I have found sometimes overestimates our snowfalls a few days ahead of a storm. 30 cm seems really out of reach given initial rainfall and melting on contact of early snow. Until other models catch on to this kind of scenario, I would not expect this to happen. 5 to 10 cm seems to be a good consensus right now. Amounts will really depend on how early we switch over. Models have us switching over sometime in the morning, either early or mid morning, but this could still change.

      Yes, it does look like a period of below normal temperatures. Winter is certainly making an early entrance this year.

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    4. Yay! I’m finally ready for winter!

      Regarding the severity of the cool down, do you think we could see the snow that stays for the winter in early November instead of having to wait until the end of the month like last year? I don’t think we will be seeing a warm November this year?

      Those below freezing highs next week, do you think that’s just a quick cooldown for a few days or is it likely we are sliding into winter now?

      I am surprised at the early winter especially after our very mild September and October, how cold would November have to be for fall to NOT finish above normal?

      Sorry for all the questions, I’m excited for the snow and winter!

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  8. EC NAEFS outlooks pasting us with a 90% chance of below normal temperatures and a 0% chance of above normal for the first week of November. Now THAT I like to see. JJ. With cold temps headed our way do you think we will see a winter snowcover become established sooner than later?

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    1. Really impossible to predict that this far out. Depends on how much snow we get over the next month and if we get any significant warmups to melt new snow. This thursday's snow will likely melt with us warming a bit over the weekend.

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    2. Yeah, this snow likely won’t stay. But the weekend warmup is just temporary right? Because it looks like we will be back into cold next week. Regarding Halloween, a high of +2C and snow. Is this a realistic forecast?

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    3. I'm not sure how long the cool down will last. The last week of October and the first week of November look cooler than normal but beyond that I can't say. Systems on Sunday and Wednesday will help provide brief and small warmups and some more precipitation.

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    4. Thanks. I am hoping that the cooldown will last and that this really will be an early winter.

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  9. Looking like mostly a rain event with this incoming system. Some light showers this evening should intensify to steadier rains overnight. Somewhere around 10-15 mm of rain is possible (could be more or less depending how early it switches over to snow. Canadian and US models show a switcheover to snow in the early morning as the cold air comes down behind the system. Winds will be very strong in the morning, potentially gusting up to 80 km/h from the north-northeast. I'm not sure why ECCC's forecast doesn't have a switcheover to snow until late afternoon but I suppose it is possible given the fact that the european model is the only one maintaining rain throughout the day. Regardless, if rain switches to snow in the morning, we will likely receive a good 2-5 cm around Winnipeg, potentially more if the snow sticks and starts earlier. If it doesn't switcheover until afternoon like ECCC is mentioning, we wouldn't receive much accumulation at all because the bulk of the precipitation will be over by noon.

    All in all, mostly a rain event with most likely a switcheover to snow sometime in the morning (but could be later). Accumulations probably won't be significant in Winnipeg but that depends how early we switcheover and how much sticks to the ground. With temperatures slightly above freezing, much of the snow might not stick at all. Wind will be the main story.

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    1. 11 am ECCC update advertises a switcheover to snow by the morning, more consistent with model guidance. I'm more confident to say the rain will switcheoever to snow earlier rather than later in the morning with a few slushy cm likely.

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    2. Thanks. That’s too bad that we are getting most of it as rain. I wish that we would get it all as snow. Is that 5-10cm still likely? EC only says 2cm now.

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    3. At least we will get to experience a taste of winter for a day, although the snow will probably melt by evening like last time

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    4. 5-10 cm is still possible but 2-5 cm seems more likely at this point.

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    5. Thanks. Now EC predicting a low of -9C tomorrow night. Could it really get that cold?

      Snowfall warnings issued east of Winnipeg, I wish we were in it...

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    6. If skies clear as expected, then that wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility for the Airport, especially if there is a good layer of fresh snow on the surface to insulate the ground.

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    7. Thanks. We would need the snowcover to get us down that low though wouldn’t we?

      Regarding record lows, I saw that the record low for tomorrow is -20.6C in 1936. I am curious, how is it even possible to get that cold in October? Most record lows now are in the mid minus teens

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    8. There would have to be snow on the ground to get that cold in October. Note that that 1936 low was preceded by several days of cold and snow so there was likely snow on the ground at the time of the low. Snow insulates the ground, reducing the amount of warmth released from the ground to the atmosphere.

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    9. That makes sense. Thank you. Still, -20C would be something to experience this early. Wow that’s cold. And the record low maximums. -8.9C is October’s all time record low maximum. How do we stay that cold during the day? Would that be a result of snow cover as well?

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    10. That must have been quite the cold air mass coming through. Snow on the ground would help yes, to reflect sunlight.

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  10. JJ. Will this upcoming cold snap kick October out of the top 30 warmest?

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    1. It could be a close call. I'll look into it this weekend or Monday.

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    2. It would need to average 7.1C or higher. I have a feeling it will just miss it. It will finish above normal though.

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  11. It’s gonna be an interesting day tomorrow that’s for sure

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  12. Hey man. Are there any numbers on how much rain and snow fell?

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  13. It looks like EC is missing yesterday’s temperature data. How will this affect the monthly mean?

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  14. The temperatures aren't missing or yesterday, they will likely appear tomorrow or something.

    I've measured 1.3 cm of snow at my place as of 830 am. I'll take another measurement once the snow stops. The Forks has had over 11 mm of precipitation as of 9 am and the Airport over 12 mm.

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    1. About 10.4 mm of the 12.2 mm of precip at the Airport was in the form of rain.

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    2. Thanks. Dissappointing that we didn’t get more snow but at least it was enough to make a winterlike scene outside this morning. Standing at the bus Stop this morning it was ice pelleting as well as snowing.

      Now we turn our attention to what looks like a ridiculous early winter cold snap next week. Long range outlooks are showing no sign of the cold letting up through to mid November. It looks like our highs descend below freezing by next Thursday and stay there after that. Highs in the mid minus single digits looking likely be next weekend!! I’m thrilled!

      Is it actually looking this cold JJ? If so, I am assuming we will see our snowcover soon. Is it true that more snow is likely for Halloween?

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    3. I think my winter dreams are going to come true!

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    4. The Saturday night to Wednesday period in general looks unsettled with periods of flurries and showers. Main event is Saturday night into Sunday. Various types of precipitation are possible, including rain and snow, so we'll have to wait until we get closer for more detail/certainty. Not expecting as much precipitation as today. After that, don't see anything too organised for Winnipeg right now.

      Yeah can't rule out some highs below freezing next week, especially late week, but not too far below freezing however. It's chilly but nothing anywhere close to record breaking. Second week of November and beyond I can't say, right now I think it could still go either way.

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    5. According to the weather network after November 2nd every single day will have below freezing highs. I hope this will hold true! I think we really are in for an early winter. How long will today’s snowcover stay for?

      Do you think we have the potential for snow on Halloween? The weather network saying a high of 3 with mixed precipitation transitioning to snow at night

      What’s the final snowfall you got at your place?

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    6. Still snowing here. I would imagine we’ve gotten 3-4cm now. What do you have?

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    7. Public forecasts like that seem to be geared increasingly toward climatology beyond 1 week, resulting in ''stagnant'' temperature trends that aren't very realistic, so it could end up being a lot more variable than what is presented.

      There's still been some variability about Wednesday. There is another clipper system but models have been varying in how far east or west it goes. There is the chance for more precipitation with it.

      I got 2.0 cm on the dot at my place. New snow this afternoon is not increasing accumulations because the snow is melting.

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    8. Thanks. The snow is pretty much on the ground here still in St james. Will this stuff disappear by tomorrow morning?

      I think it is looking pretty promising for an early winter though, the EC NAEFS map pastes us with a 90-100% chance of below normal through November 10th. US CPC has below normal through the same period. I’m confident in saying we are going to be seeing an early winter.

      Feels like Christmas out there, I love it.

      How is the new snow melting when the temperature is -1C?

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    9. Although it is cloudy, some sunshine can still get through the clouds, warming the surface ever so slightly to melt some snow (thus it isn't dark as night outside). There is also the fact the ground is still warm. Remember that air temperatures are measured a few metres above the surface and although it may record below freezing temperatures, the near-surface may be above freezing locally. There doesn't appear to be a lot of melting however, but I'm not measuring any increase in snow depth from this afternoon's snow at my place.

      The snow will likely all melt away tomorrow thanks to highs slightly above freezing and sunshine.

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    10. I was hoping it would stay! Oh well, I’m sure with our cold snap coming up it won’t be long until we get more again. Only a matter of time.

      What do you think of the EC outlook pasting us with 100% chance of below normal temps through November 10th. Are these outlooks accurate? The US CPC things we are in for some cold as well

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    11. When the probabilities are that high, it's a sure sign that that's what's going to happen. It indicates strong consensus of a given occurrence. I haven't seen below normal probabilities that high in a long time (can't remember the last time).

      It's only fitting that we get a very cold November and early start to winter after last year's incredible warmest November on record. The similar thing happened after the warmest September in 2009 and the warmest March in 2012. March 2013 was awfully cold and September 2010, although not significantly below normal, was the coldest September of the 21 century up to now.

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    12. Thanks JJ.

      April 2013 was actually 4.3C colder than march 2012, that’s extreme!!

      I agree with you, it’s fitting that we get an early start to winter! Unless November turns around to warmth significantly in the last half of the month, it is likely November will be a colder than normal month.

      It looks like we warm up a bit this weekend but then really take the plunge next week. Considering it is basically guaranteed that we’ll be below normal, this means we will probably get an early snowcover this year ( at least compared to the last few years ) right?

      Weather underground is forecasting snow on November 1st, and then below freezing highs after. Could that be our start to winter?

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    13. It's just really tough to confirm when a consistent winter snow pack will start. Depends how much snow we get in the next month and on the frequency and intensity of warmups. The sun is still strong enough to create an important melting factor for still another couple weeks.

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    14. With the colder than normal conditions expected, one would think we would have an earlier than normal winter snow pack develop but we'll have to wait and see.

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    15. That makes sense. Now, let’s say we did get 5-10cm of snow on November 1st as is being predicted, and the temperatures remain below freezing consistently afterwards. The sun wouldn’t melt snow if the highs are below freezing would it?

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    16. There would probably be snow remaining on the ground in that scenario, especially in shady spots.

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    17. Thanks. It will be interesting to see what happens

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  15. Also, how much snow are we up to for this month now?

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    1. About 4-5 cm or so. Will have to wait a few days to get the official numbers from Rob's Charleswood station.

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    2. Thanks. I heard Rob is away for a few days. Does the station still take measurements even if he isn’t there?

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    3. Thanks to the power of manned observations (sad to think this is revolutionary these days), he will be providing an estimate based on his snow-water equivalent and amounts reported throughout the city.

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    4. Yep, it is indeed sad to think that manned observations are a thing of the past.

      Do you enjoy the snow? I thought it was beautiful, there’s still some around here although the grass is starting to poke through again, has it stuck at your place?

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    5. I like it but it's too early. If winter weather stayed in the period of late November to mid March I'd be happy.

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    6. The snow stuck on the ground at my place too, it did everywhere. My snow depth is about 1 cm but in cold spots it is as deep as 3 cm due to drifting/blowing.

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    7. We still have some decent snow in our backyard, drifted a little bit. Yeah about 1cm depth but a little deeper in some spots. I expect when temps rise above freezing tomorrow this will melt, but it is looking like there will be more chances for snow in the coming days.

      Regarding tonight’s low temperature, it’s still only -2C now. Will this snow help us tank towards that -7C mark or does it look like we will stay higher?

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    8. Low at Airport was -5.8°C

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    9. Yep, Warmer than I expected. Brandon got down to a chilly -11.1C in the hourly readings. Brrr. Wish we got that cold!

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    10. It remained quite cloudy here, probably why it didn't get too cold.

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    11. Yes it was pretty cloudy. Looking like another cool night tonight. If the clouds had cleared out it would have tanked lower.

      Is our snow cover going to melt today?

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    12. Most, if not all of it, will melt this afternoon. We just need this sunshine to maintain itself. Wouldn't surprise me if shady spots still have some snow. It should be all gone by tomorrow afternoon at the latest, just in time for possibly more snow tomorrow evening and Sunday. There could also be some showers/rain tomorrow night and early Sunday with minor accumulations.

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    13. Problem is this cloud cover. There lots of cloud downstream of Lake Winnipeg, so it could possibly prevent the snow from full melting today.

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    14. I’m not complaining if this gorgeous snow stays!

      So apparently there are precip chances on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday? Could you break this down to how much snow and or rain we could receive? Which precipitation type is most likely?

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  16. Just out of curiosity, how cold would november have to be to make fall finish colder than normal?

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    1. Depends how October finishes, but a rough estimate right now would be at least 3-4°C colder than normal.

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    2. Will be interesting to see what happens. Didn’t a similar thing happen in 2014? A warm fall turned to a brutal November.

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    3. September and October were warm that year but not as warm as this year. November was quite chilly but the cold didn't come until the second week.

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    4. Yep I remember 2014. 2014 was a cold year, I don’t think I’ll ever forget 2013/14...

      Remember that December 2014 was actually quite warm even following that cold November, so a cold start does not necessarily mean a cold winter, but I just have this feeling we are going to be colder this year.

      It looks like the cold is coming at the start of the month this year. Last year our continuous winter snowpack didn’t start until Nov 28th. We’ll see how that’ll change this year.

      Now that we are closing in on the start of Winter, is there any info on the forecast for winter as a whole? I know you don’t really like seasonal forecast but US CPC is predicting a greater than median chance of a colder winter AND a colder spring on top of that. Is there any merit to that?

      Their forecasts actually go all the way to fall 2018 and NDJ 2018-19, which they predict to be well above normal. How can they even go that far?

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    5. I believe the chance of a colder than normal winter is higher than usual simply based on the fact we've had 3 warm winters in a row.

      When it comes to early winters leading to cold winters, that isn't necessarily true. It appears to be close to a 50/50 chance.

      Of the top 14 earliest starts to the winter snow pack (with respect to trace cm OR 1 cm) (starting no later than November 7):
      5 (36%) were followed by a warmer than normal winter
      2 (14%) were followed by a normal winter (within 0.5°C of normal)
      7 (50%) were followed by a colder than normal winter.

      Note when it comes to winter snow pack it probably would have been better to compare to 2 cm which is considered a more uniform snow pack on the surface. The numbers above are just numbers I had found previously.

      I don't know how they can go that far other than with long range computer modelling and predictions of ocean temperatures and possibly comparing with analog years. I don't usually look at those forecasts because I know it's just too far away to predict confidentally.

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    6. Thanks JJ. I am curious, what are the top 5 earliest and latest starts to winter? I’m terms of continuous snowpack beginning. Was last year one of the latest? How early have we had consistent snow before?

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    7. With respect to snow depth of 'trace cm':
      Top 5 earliest: 2003 (Oct 26), 1972 (Oct 27), 1991 (Oct 29), 1971 (Oct 31), 1955/1979/1995/1997 (Nov 1).
      Top 5 latest: 2002 (Dec 19), 1998 (Dec 18), 1999 (Dec 15), 1982 (Dec 14), 1974/1987 (Dec 11).

      With respect to snow depth of '1 cm':
      Top 5 earliest: 1972 (Oct 27), 1971 (Oct 31), 1955/1995 (Nov 1), 1992 (Nov 3)
      Top 5 latest: 1963 (Jan 13), 1997 (Dec 29), 1968 (Dec 22), 2002 (Dec 19), 1998 (Dec 18)

      I don't have the 2 cm snow depth record yet and won't have the chance to get it today. The numbers above are actually pulled right out of my honours thesis which I did on historical snow cover and its trends in Winnipeg.

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    8. In 1963 we didn’t get a continuous snowcover until Jan 13th? That’s wasn’t a brown Christmas though?

      In 1997, did we actually have a continuous snowpack from November 1st onward? 97/98 was a very warm winter

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    9. Remember that for 1997 that was only for trace cm snow depth, basically a dusting. The 1 cm consistent snow depth didn't start until after Christmas. November 1997 was actually colder than normal, supporting the earlier snow.

      In Jan 1963, snow depth fell to a trace early month thanks to warm weather and minimal snow pack. It was almost a brown Christmas that 1962, with only 3 cm snow depth.

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    10. Thanks. So, December 1997 was warmer than November 1997 then? That was a very warm winter

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    11. December was in fact a bit warmer than November that year, yes.

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    12. That is very odd isn’t it? The only other time I think that happened was in 1877 when we had the warmest December on record ( even warmer than a normal November! )

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  17. Now yesterday’s data is missing too. What is going on?

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    1. It might pop up tomorrow or Sunday. Notice that Wednesday's data popped up this morning. Not sure why data goes missing temporarily.

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    2. Yep I saw that too, it is odd how it goes missing sometimes.

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  18. Have the models backed off on the cold air coming up? It seems that the core of the cold will be further west. Do you still think we will be very cold?

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    1. Not much has changed. It definitely continues to look below normal here for a while. Cold west, warm east type of pattern.

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    2. Thanks. The EC NAEFS puts us at a 70% chance of below normal with 100% west of us. Would you say it’s pretty much a guarantee we will be below normal? Are there any ideas how long it could last for?

      I wonder if it’s just a passing cold snap or a sign of winter to come.

      Could we go for COLDEST November on record this year?

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    3. It looks like the warmth extended a bit further west pushing the cold further west?

      I heard they’ve been having the warmest fall on record on the east coast

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    4. Yeah it's really remarkable how warm it's been from southern Ontario to the Maritime provinces. It's 20C in Labrador this week which is the latest on record in some areas.

      I really don't think we'll be anywhere near coldest November on record. The coldest was in 1896 and it was extremely cold, about as cold as an average December or February in today's averages. We even dipped below -35C that month. It would be very difficult to break that kind of record in today's climate.

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    5. They seem to be constantly around 20C or higher on the east coast. Are they basically having what we had last year?

      Yeah that 1896 November. How is that even possible to get that cold that early? It just seems impossible? And -35C in NOVEMBER. That’s unimaginable. However, if the forecast pans out as expected I wouldn’t be surprised if we had one in the top 30 coldest.


      November’s record low of -36.7C in 1875. How is it possible to get that cold that early?

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    6. Based on what we're saying now, I would expect a top 30 coldest as well. Depends how cold the second half of the month is of course.

      Just need a very cold air mass and snow on the ground and clear skies at night. We did get to -29.6C in November 2014.

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    7. Yep. The second half will be a big factor. But The next few weeks is looking quite cold and VERY early. Looks like winter is coming in aggressively this year. Wouldn’t that be something, have a very cold November after last year’s incredibly warm one. I think the story of this November and winter is going to be a lot different than last year.

      And even looking far into the Long range, there’s no sign of a warmup even into mid month. This really is going to be quite an event. We will see how bad it will get, but it’s safe to say Old Man Winter wants some early revenge this year.

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  19. This coming pattern eerily resembles November 1985-1996. 3rd coldest November on record.

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  20. Looks like Robs station only picked up 1.6cm yesterday. It does seem like we got more....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Remember that that's only from 7 am to 7 am. Snow that fell after 7 am yesterday will be marked as having fallen on 'Oct 26' instead of Oct 25 which that 1.6 cm was recorded on.

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    2. Right, thanks! So more will show up tomorrow then?

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    3. Thanks. And by the way, yesterday’s data has appeared in the EC logs now. Must have been a technical issue

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  21. So it looks like there’s a couple of precip chances this weekend and into next week.

    It looks like some possible accumulating snow OR rain tomorrow night. EC thinks rain while WN thinks snow. Why the discrepancy and what is most likely?

    Then is it true we could get some snow Sunday night into Monday morning and then more snow Wednesday morning?
    long range models are picking up on a full scale blizzard starting on November 4th/5th. Is this a possibility?

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    Replies
    1. I'll provide an update in the morning tomorrow as I haven't had the chance to look in great detail today. Models keep bouncing around with timing and positioning of lows that far out in the future so have to wait and see.

      I have to admit I'm not exactly sure what to expect with regards to how cold and how snowy the next few weeks will be. In my ''conscious'' weather life (past 10 years or so), I haven't really experienced a winter this early before so I'm curious to see how bad it will be.

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    2. Thanks JJ. I really do appreciate you taking the time to answer all of my questions! It means a lot!

      Is this one of the earliest winters you have experienced? If I recall winter 2012/13 started around November 7th or so... but the cold year of 2013/14 didn’t start until around mid month so we are looking colder earlier. Whether we could challenge that year, who knows. But that’d be impressive if we did.

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    3. 2003 and 2006 had major snowstorms in late October, but I was just a kid at the time, so I wasn't keeping much track of the weather at the time. All I remember from fall 2006 was trick-or-treating while trudging through snow drifts and cold temperatures! It wasn't until 2007 that I started keeping track more aggressively (I got my own rain gauge, etc...). So yes this is basically the earliest winter that I can remember.

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    4. I am THRILLED about this early winter! It’s about time especially with the last few incredibly mild falls and winters. How aggressive are the models bringing in this cold snap? Is it looking intense and prolonged? I’ve seen a high of -6C forecasted for next Thursday, yikes.

      Supposedly there’s the potential for a halloween blizzard and another one next weekend. If that pans out, we’ll be locked in winter 10 days from now. Wow

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    5. May I ask, if you were a kid in 2006, how old are you now? I’m 17, but I have been interested in weather my entire life. I remember watching the weather network for hours when I was a kid. I found this page a while back through some old posts on rob’s blog.

      I have always been fascinated by how our climate changes over time, and that is why I love your record books website so much. I like being able to look up any record for any day.

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    6. Yeah, I hope we dodge all the storms because a significant snowfall of even just 5-10 cm could possibly be enough to ensure there is snow on the ground until spring, given the cold weather that's coming. (I know you're hoping we do get the storms!)

      I'm 23 and yeah I used to watch The Weather Network all the time as a kid too! I really like climate data as well. I used to collect and organise climate data from EC's site and get records in my spare time as a kid. Over time, I learned how to do this more quickly and efficiently.

      Delete
    7. Bring on the snow!! Yes indeed I hope we get the storms, and yes if we got a 5-10cm snowfall I would imagine it would likely stay until spring, and with a La Niña developing, we could have a cold and late spring as well. It could be a long winter :)

      Am I correct in saying our upcoming pattern resembles 2013/14? That winter was the coldest of modern times and had a consistent pattern with the jet stream diving southward, locking us in a constant arctic flow. It was also characterized by constant clippers, which is what led to that also being a very snowy winter. It seems we are getting a bunch of clippers in the near future as well. It seems there is a striking resemblance, which makes me wonder if we really do have a record breaker of a winter ahead of us.

      I took a walk outside tonight, and there’s a fair amount of snow left in some spots, particularly shaded lawns and spaces. A gorgeous night with temps sitting around -2C.


      Is this upcoming cold spell looking really intense and prolonged? It seems there is no end in sight to it, I recall you saying earlier this month that winter likely wouldn’t start early, and I agreed. I think we were both wrong :)

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    8. Yeah partly I'm kind of glad to experience an early winter like this because it provides a new experience for me.

      There are apparently hints that the second half of November might not be as cold as the first (see Brett Anderson's blog post on AccuWeather). Have to wait and see.

      I don't want to go and say this is like 2013-2014 yet. The cold was so persistent that winter and winter is only getting started here this year. There is still much to be revealed.

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    9. That is true. Although I would love to see another winter like 13/14.

      When you say the second half could be warmer, do you mean it will be more “ normal “ temperatures or actually above normal/ actually warmer than the first half? I would hope we don’t return to well above normal again.

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    10. He just says ''not as cold'' and I'm not sure if that means relative to normal or if it will actually be warmer than the first half.

      Delete
    11. Thanks. Honestly it is too hard to predict that far out isn’t it? That would be really dissappointing if we got warm again. I’m hoping Winter is here to stay!

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  22. Accuweather now calling for 20cm on November 1st and another 20cm on November 5th. Holy cow. If that happened it would be a complete dream for me!! I wish!

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  23. Looks like we will probably see a band of snow late this afternoon or early-mid evening. It will be brief with minor accumulation, no more than 1-2 cm and we may receive only a dusting if most of it stays to our northeast.

    Tomorrow looks very unsettled with scattered flurries and showers. In the morning and afternoon, precipitation could be of almost any type: snow, rain or pellets. There could be some pockets of heavier precipitation. Then a general periods of light snow tomorrow night and Monday with 1-3 cm possible. So overall, a minor system. However, it looks windy on Monday (albeit not as windy as Thursday) with blowing snow in open areas, especially in the morning.

    Looks like another storm system for Wednesday. There is still uncertainty on positioning which will have an impact on precipitation type. Canadian model seems to lean toward rain while the US model seems to lean toward snow.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks. Is this why EC is predicting rain for Wednesday and weather network is saying snow? Which do you think is more likely?

      If we don’t get a snowcover, will the cooldown not be as severe as it could have been?

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    2. Also, is it most likely that Sunday’s afternoon precip will be rain? It looks like a warm day

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    3. Lean toward rain or mixed precip in the morning and early afternoon, becoming more of a snow event by early-mid afternoon, especially in heavier pockets of precipitation.

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    4. It's still early, but given that most systems lately have been starting as rain and finishing as snow, that might be the case again on Wednesday. Have tot wait and see.

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    5. Thanks. So we will likely get a snow covered ground all over again?

      Is this cooldown not looking as severe as it could have been? Our highs are in the -3 to -5 range but Regina has highs in the -5 to -8 range? Kenora has highs around freezing forecast

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    6. Frequent low pressure systems and stubborn cloud cover are helping to moderate our temperatures.

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    7. Yes. The clouds are preventing us from tanking as low as it could be, but what I meant is, is the upcoming cooldown starting after Halloween not looking as severe as it could be? Or is it looking very cold still? Out west their forecast highs are even colder

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    8. Still looks much cooler than normal, but with clouds and systems we won't get as cold as we could. The forecast out west doesn't look much different from here. Chilly and snowy, with our coldest conditions probably after Wednesday.

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    9. How long does it look like this cooldown will persist for? Is it just a one time cold snap or does it look like a transition into real winter? The weather network seems to think our below freezing highs start on Thursday and persist last Remembrance Day. Could it be that prolonged?

      Regarding snowfall, does it look like we will be receiving lots of snow in the next 2 weeks?

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    10. Again it depends on track of these systems. Have to wait until we get closer when models start to converge on a solution. There could be lots of snow or most of the snow could miss us. Have to wait and see. Remember that this far out, different models have different solutions most of the time and this leads to uncertainty. We're definitely in an active pattern right now so significant snowfalls are possible with Wednesday being the first possibility.

      Careful with focusing on specifics in those long range forecasts. That far out, you can have a good idea of 'it's going to be generally below or above normal overall' but specifics like number of days with highs below freezing is just too difficult to say this far out. We could have a day or two above freezing in there, such as ahead of low pressure systems.

      It's safe to say winter is here, but the worst of winter is still far away. We are running below normal for a while now overall but it won't be mid-winter type of cold. The first half of November looks cold. Second half I can't say for sure. There are hints (such as from Brett for Accuweather who uses the European model) of possibly the second half not being as cold relative to normal.

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    11. Thanks. Sure the second half may not be as cold relative to normal, but it will still be “ cold “ since normals are dropping rapidly. So I wouldn’t expect a return to well above freezing temps. We probably won’t see another double digit high until March or April.

      Yeah mid winter cold won’t happen yet, too early for that to even be possible, but anything below freezing for highs is certainly winterlike. This November is the opposite of last year, when we had highs in the mid to high teens right through the first half of the month.

      Last year was truly unreal, I’d never seen anything like it before

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    12. Remember we were just talking a few weeks back about how it has been a very warm fall- again. Well that is going to change very soon! If November is cold enough fall could be pretty much normal

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    13. That is correct. The second half might not end up being much warmer than the first half but with normals dropping, we wouldn't be as far from normal as we will be in the first half. I don't like making predictions that far out though. In a lot of cases, to me it feels like you're almost just as well flipping a coin. Sometimes, the pattern is obvious enough that we can make general predictions that far out but not commonly.

      What a change from last year is right! Not terribly unexpected given it seems many warmest months are followed by the opposite the next year.

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    14. Yep. I have a feeling the second half will be about the same as the first half. Either way, I think there’s a good chance of a colder than normal November. Whether it’s a top 30 coldest will remain to be seen.

      I remember last year. It was insane. What allowed our November to be so incredibly warm? We were having September like temperatures. I remember in mid November people were on the patios and cutting their grass and it was 17-19C. Most people loved it but I hated it. I’d much rather have cold like this year!

      Even though we aren’t in mid winter cold yet, I’m still happy we look to stay below freezing as that means winter will be longer this year.

      Delete
  24. With this stubbon low cloud again today, I worry this snow may not be able to all melt again today.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not a problem for me! :)

      And we will get more tonight.

      You were saying we may get snow tomorrow, how will this happen if the temperature is plus 5?

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    2. That high will likely occur midday (late morning to early afternoon) then temperatures fall slowly in the afternoon with colder air moving in. In general, just expect a messy day with mixed precip tomorrow.

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    3. Thanks. So then snow is likely tomorrow you are saying?

      I am wondering, are we soon bound to have SOG until spring? It could be possible.

      So basically, snow tonight, mixed precip tomorrow, switching to snow tomorrow night and snow Monday morning. Is that about what it’ll be?

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    4. Thanks. It looks like about 1-2cm of snow tonight with 2-4cm tomorrow night. Does that sound right?

      We’ve still got a good amount of snow in our backyard.

      Delete
  25. Once again, yesterday’s data is missing. That’s getting to be a real pain

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    Replies
    1. Yeah it happens a lot, but you can see the temperatures and precipitation for yesterday at the bottom of the winnipeg forecast page.

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    2. Thanks. Yeah it usually is there.

      Honestly I can’t wait for the snow. I love taking walks while it is falling and listening to Christmas music

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    3. Yesterday’s data is actually not on the Winnipeg forecast page. It just says that no data is available... odd.

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    4. Frustrating... I didn't notice that. It appears there was an hour of data missing due to maintenance which means yesterday's data might remain missing on the Archives. I can tell you that the high yesterday was 2.1C and the low -6.4C. That high of 2.1C actually seems a little suspiciously high but that's what the station recorded.

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    5. Yeah, where did that high of +2.1C come from? The highest I saw in the hourly readings was +0.9C. It could have gotten higher in between but I don’t know about that high.


      How do we determine the monthly mean if the data stays missing? I agree this is very frustrating, I am almost feel like climate accuracy is not one of EC’s main priorities.

      Delete
    6. Often missing data is only missing in the Archives and can be retrieved in synoptic reports. Other than that, the general public does not have access to other methods (other than looking at hourly data if available). This combined with the fact most would not even know synoptic reports exist and how to use them, means most would not be able to determine the true monthly mean.

      It's possible some brief sunshine might have caused that 2.1C high.

      If the day's data is still missing by Nov 1, you could always send another feedback report so that they know that the public cares about the data completeness.

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    7. Yeah I think I will send a report if necessary.

      Do you have ways of determining the monthly mean despite the fact it is missing from that data archive there?


      What is our monthly mean so far? I have a feeling we will just miss the 30 warmest.

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    8. Synoptic reports will often have the data required to fill in missing data in the Archives. This website explains what these are: http://www.ec.gc.ca/manobs/default.asp?lang=En&n=F6DC0E24-1 , and one source where they are available is through Ogimet.com.

      If all ''official'' methods are exhausted, I will use hourly data to provide an estimate or I will use YWG data to fill in the missing data for the XWG station. I just try to make sure my datasets are as complete as possible.

      Monthly mean to yesterday is 8.0C, pushing us down to 18th warmest. The chance of a top 30 warmest October is dwindling. We may just miss out on this honour.

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    9. Thank you. I really do appreciate all the work you do for us, especially since Environment Canada doesn’t not make this data easily available.

      October is still 3C above normal. But yeah, I think we may miss out. It would need to finish with 7.1C or above to be a 30 warmest month.

      Delete
  26. Looks like according to robs obs we received 2.2cm of snow on Thursday, and 4.2cm total this month. This is about average for Oct isn’t it?

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    Replies
    1. It's close to normal yes. The 1981-2010 normal 5.6 cm and the 1987-2016 average is 4.6 cm.

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    2. Thanks. So average October snowfall is decreasing then..

      We had multiple very snowy October’s in the 2000’s. So I am surprised that the 2010’s has seen mainly snow free October’s

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    3. It's partly warmer Octobers (but not by much) and luck.

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    4. Yes October’s have warmed by like 0.2C haven’t they?

      I’m intrigued by why falls are warming so fast. They are our fastest warming season. Meanwhile springs have gotten colder

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  27. Are we still looking at snow tonight? May it be enough to cover the ground? Weather network radar shows it passing to our south

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    Replies
    1. There will likely some light snow at times this evening but not much accumulation if any at all.

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    2. I wish we’d get more accumulation. Unfortunately almost all our snow from Thursday is gone now. Is the 2-4cm for tomorrow night likely to accumulate?

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    3. There should be some accumulation yes, with blowing snow in open areas Monday morning. 1-3 cm appears to be a better range right now.

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    4. Dissappointing how these little snowfalls keep getting downgraded. I’m eager to see the real winter snow.

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  28. EC seems to think our cooldown isn’t going to be very bad anymore. Those frigid highs late next week seem closer to freezing now, dissappointing. Although I know those forecasts are automated so I shouldn’t put too much stock in them.

    It does now reflect the rain changing to snow in the afternoon tomorrow like you stated.

    Why is EC pasting us with a 70% chance of showers on Wednesday? Everywhere else I’ve heard of a good chance of snow. I know that forecast is automated, but where is it pulling that from?

    ReplyDelete
  29. Looks like we only got up to +0.3C in the hourly readings and have now popped back below freezing.

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  30. This is an example of why automated forecasting is screwed up. This is Dauphin’s forecast for Sunday night

    Night: Cloudy. 60 percent chance of rain showers early in the evening. Snow beginning early in the evening. Wind north 30 km/h. Low minus 2.

    Is it rain or is it snow? Just. Wow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is a strange forecast. It has to do with the tool forecasters have to use. The tool spits out a forecast phrase like the one you give and it sometimes spits out something that doesn't make sense like that.

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    2. Yep. There’s another one for Winnipeg tonight which doesn’t make much sense

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  31. Tonight’s snow was a big bust. Saw a couple of flurries and that’s it

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    Replies
    1. Looks like the snow redeveloped east of the city.

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    2. That’s sucks. I hope we actually get accumulation tonight

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  32. Precip typing is a complicated thing to forecast lately, especially a few days out.

    Scattered showers and flurries this afternoon with periods of snow tonight. I don't expect much accumulation so I'm sticking with 1-3 cm. Very windy tomorrow morning and early afternoon with gusts to 70 km/h possible. This will cause blowing snow in open areas.

    Wednesday looks like mostly a snow event right now. 5-10 cm is not out of the question but it will depend on the exact track of the low.

    Next weekend, yet another storm system. At this time, it actually looks like more of a rain event with rain in the warm sector then some snow on the backside, but not as much snow as rain. Have to wait and see though because it's still a whole week away and a lot can change before then.

    Yes, I think you're right Matt. Looks like this cool down won't be as significant as we might have expected. Highs will be below freezing at times, but not anywhere near record breaking for sure. If we can get some clear skies at night during our cool downs behind low pressure systems, we could see some overnight lows in the minus teens. Otherwise, all this cloud and these low pressure systems are really helping to moderate our temperatures. Also, if we can get a good snowpack started, that will help to produce the colder temperatures you are hoping for.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah honestly I’m quite disappointed in how forecasts have backed off on the severity of this cooldown. It looks like we’ll have some below freezing highs later this week but potentially heading up above freezing next weekend. I haven’t heard rain forecasted anywhere yet though? TWN and WX underground forecasting snow, not rain! Where is the rain coming from?


      And if we do get that snow Wednesday, would it just melt away if it rains next weekend, dissappointing that our winter may not be so early after all.

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    2. The US and Canadian models were showing mostly rain this morning. The US model's update now shows more snow. Again, highliting the difficulty with forecasting precip typing this far out. Looks like good bet it should start as rain then switch to snow overall... But need to wait and see because models will continue to flip flop for a bit.

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    3. Thanks. I am hoping for snow

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  33. I don’t know. This afternoons NAEFS saying 90-100% chance of colder than normal conditions through to the middle of the month. What are your thoughts? It looks like we pop above freezing next weekend before falling again. I want to say November is definitely looking colder than normal ( normal highs to start the month are plus 5, dropping to 0 by around the 13th and -6 by the 30th ) but I don’t think it’s going to be severe

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  34. JJ what is our monthly mean at now?

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  35. Weather network calling for 2-4cm tonight. Does this sound good and when can we see the switch to snow?

    ReplyDelete
  36. Been snowing for over an hour here but no accumulation, melting on contact. That’s disappointing.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah wow we've been getting quite lucky so far. Hopefully Wednesday produces.

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    2. Yeah this is really disappointing. I don’t understand why we can’t get cold and accumulating snow

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    3. Why is tonight’s snow melting?

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    4. Temperatures remained above freezing.

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    5. Yeah I saw that. It even popped up to plus 1 after midnight. It did snow for several hours, but it wasn’t cold enough to accumulate.

      Does none of that snow get counted as snowfall because it didn’t accumulate and couldn’t be measured? How does that work?

      Delete
    6. Snowfall gets marked as 'trace cm' and the melted equivalent is considered precipitation (not rainfall).

      Delete
    7. Thanks. So no matter how much snow actually fell, it only counts as a trace?

      Delete
    8. Yes because there was no accumulation. Snowfall is measured as the amount that actually accumulated on the surface. Otherwise, its melted equivalent goes in 'precipition in mm'.

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  37. Lake effect snowsqualls off the lakes this morning will continue into this afternoon and finally start to taper off this evening. Anybody wanting to travel east of west of Winnipeg should be either reconsidering their plans if possible or simply drive slower and more carefully than usual as highways are quite icy and snowsqualls can produce reduced visibility in blowing snow.

    Wednesday still looks like a good chance for a significant accumulation of snow around Winnipeg. There is some model consensus on 5-10 cm or so. For those excited for snow such as you Matt, hopefully this materializes.

    Next weekend's storm system... Rain changing to snow is still expected but I won't bother with amounts this far out.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If this snow materializes on Wednesday, then we will likely start seeing those colder temperatures with lows in the teens on the coldest nights.

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    2. Thanks. Why is the weather network saying only 2-4cm?

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    3. I don't know how they produce their forecasts, if it's automated, automated with human intervention, or purely human driven. That's their forecast. 2-4 cm is possible if Winnipeg misses most of the snow.

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  38. Good article from Minnesota explaining how early snows and cold in October and even to a certain extent, November, don't tell you much about the coming winter. One quote: ''winters immediately following a snowy fall can be just about anything.''
    http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/october_snow.html

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    Replies
    1. It’s actually been a mild fall so far, but I see what you mean. October 2002 ( coldest on record ) was followed by a very warm December.

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  39. EC forecasting a low of -10C tonight. Is this reasonable?

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  40. NAEFS pasting us with a 100% chance below normal temps through mid November, does this sound reasonable? It looks like we get colder after next weekend. Are we still having an early winter?

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    Replies
    1. Depends how you define 'winter'. The cool temperatures, persistent northwesterlies and snow have arrived, so to some winter has already arrived. Yes, the next couple weeks look cold, but remember this is only relative to normal. Normal highs are still above freezing up to mid November. In addition, there can still be some milder days in between, these forecasts are an average for an entire week.

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  41. Is our October going to miss the top 30 warmest? What’s the monthly mean right now? That data for that one day is still missing

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