Thundercast-Update 5/23 11:01am

Outlook legends (click legends for details):

 

Lightning detection services:
Intellicast - Updated roughly every 10-20 min, shows lightning in past hour.
The Weather Network - Updated every 30 minutes; shows lightning in past 30 minutes
Environment Canada - Updates every 10 minutes and shows lightning in last 20 minutes 

Last updated on Friday May 23 at 11:01 am
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Day 1 - TODAY & TONIGHT - 10 am Friday May 23 to 12 am Saturday May 24 -

     Discussion:  Isolated thunderstorms possible, especially in western Manitoba. Overall, not a good storm day due to the lack of large-scale triggers and lack of shear.

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Day 2 - TOMORROW - 12 am to 12 am Saturday May 24 -

     Discussion: There is a small chance of some thunder in the AM hours across all of southern Manitoba. The risk for any given location is low.
     Additional storms are possible throughout the PM hours. Limiting factors for the day are lack of shear and lack of large scale triggers. Anything that develops may be severe only briefly and over a small area... thus the isolated severe risk instead of a slight risk.

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Day 3 - SUNDAY - 12 am to 12 am Sunday May 25 -

     Discussion:  Sunday looks to be the best day for thunderstorm activity over the next few days as a cold front slides through. A trough in the mid and upper level flow will also support storm activity. Shear looks a little stronger as well, but still weak.
     At this time, nocturnal thunderstorms are possible throughout southern Manitoba early in the day. Exact location is hard to pinpoint at this time.
     Additional storm activity may continue through the day near the cold front as it sweeps eastward. Redevelopment is possible in the afternoon with this, but it is uncertain at this time if this will really occur given potentially overcast conditions.

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Note: Google maps was used as a guide for the base information on these maps.